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The court tested his ability to identify cabs under the appropriate visibility conditions. When presented with a sample of cabs (half of which were Blue and half of which were Green), the witness made correct identifications in 80% of the cases and erred in 20% of the cases. Question: What is the probability that the cab involved in the accident was Blue rather than Green? (Tversky & Kahneman, 1980, p. 41 as the "correct" answer, and, despite criticism, they have never retreated from that claim.

It even managed to find a proof more elegant than the corresponding one in the Principia Mathematica. In the summer of 1958, psychology was given a double dose of the new school of information-processing psychology. One dose was the publication of Newell, Shaw, and Simon's (1958) Psychological Review article, "Elements of a Theory of Human Problem Solving"; the other dose was the Research Training Institute on the Simulation of Cognitive Processes at the RAND Corporation, which we discuss later.

Thus the possibility of the logic of scientific discovery, the existence of which Karl Popper so vehemently disclaimed, has returned in the analogy between computer and mind (Langley, Simon, Bradshaw, & Zytkow, 1987). The first general statement of Newell and Simon's new vision of mind appeared in their 1972 book, Human Problem Solving. Newell and Simon argued for the idea that higher level cognition proceeds much like the behavior of a production system—a formalism from computer science (and before that symbolic logic) that had never before been used in psychological modeling.

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